Analyzing the Odds: PECOTA vs. FanGraphs Projections

Pitchers and catchers are gearing up for their spring training camps in Florida and Arizona, signaling the approaching baseball season. Sportsbooks have already begun posting their season win totals, such as bet365. However, some top free agents, like Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, and J.D. Martinez, are still available and could significantly affect future odds and season win totals.

Bet365’s season win totals, as of Tuesday, have been compared with MLB projection models—PECOTA and FanGraphs—to identify potential value. Teams in the American League East are looking to rival last year’s AL East winners, the Baltimore Orioles, who are expected to decline after a surprising 101-win season. On the other hand, the Toronto Blue Jays are projected for around 87.5 wins, aligning with PECOTA’s predictions but varying from FanGraphs’ 83-win estimate.

In the American League Central, the Minnesota Twins are favored to lead the division again, with Cleveland possibly offering value to bettors based on PECOTA and FanGraphs projections compared to bet365’s win total of 77.5. The American League West sees the Rangers with a high 90.5 win total, a significant divergence from projection models, while the Athletics are poised for a stronger season than last year, according to PECOTA and FanGraphs.

Taking a look at the National League, the Phillies are favored by bet365 with a higher implied win total compared to projection models. The National League Central appears to be up for grabs, with the Cardinals leading in wins, and the Reds possibly emerging as this season’s dark horse. In the National League West, the Dodgers, with their 104.5 season win total, may fall short based on both projection models’ estimates, although no clear competition seems to challenge them for the division title.

Teams and players, like the Baltimore Orioles and their young roster, the Cleveland Guardians, and the potential impact of free agents, could present intriguing opportunities for bettors, making it an exciting time to consider placing your bets for the upcoming baseball season.